BNPPRE Dashboards
The BNP Paribas Real Estate Dashboards offer us a wide range of opportunities to present real estate markets digitally and interactively. Be it at your desk or when out and about, their responsive layout enables you to view, analyse and discuss the latest market developments in different asset classes on your smartphone, tablet, PC or laptop. What’s more, the integrated filter function allows you to clearly view and compare large amounts of data at a glance. Why open a multitude of individual files or carry around pages upon pages of documents when you can quickly access an up-to-date market or location overview with just a tap or a click?
Office market key figures
Office market Q4 2023
As expected, the weak economic development left a clear mark on the German office markets in 2023. Take-up in the eight cities of Berlin, Düsseldorf, Essen, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Leipzig and Munich totalled around 2.6 million sqm. This fell short of both the previous year's result and the 10-year average by around a quarter. Although the typical year-end rally failed to materialise last year, an increase of just under 12% can be reported compared to the previous quarter. In many markets, the fourth quarter was by far the strongest of the year in terms of take-up, despite the persistently challenging conditions. The German economy should pick up speed again from the summer months at the latest and increasingly send out signals of growth. As known from previous cycles, the office markets are likely to react positively with a slight delay. However, it remains to be seen to what extent the market recovery will already be reflected in take-up in 2024.
Investment market key figures
Commercial investment market Q4 2023
In 2023, the investment markets were dominated by higher interest rates and a weak economy. As a result, the typical year-end rally largely failed to materialise. A total of just under € 23.3 billion was invested in commercial property in 2023. Compared to the previous year's very good figure, the decline in turnover amounts to around 57%, which primarily reflects the significantly changed and difficult financing environment. The 10-year average was also exceeded to a comparable extent. The transaction volume therefore remains at a similar level to the years shortly after the financial crisis. However, taking all of the influencing factors outlined above into account, we expect to see a noticeable recovery on the investment markets in 2024, which should pick up momentum in the second half of the year.
Green Building Dashboard
The share of certified green buildings within the commercial investment volume (excluding portfolios) remains at a very high level, even in a challenging market environment. After the top figure of just under 31% in 2022, around 27% was achieved in 2023. This is the second-highest share in the last 10 years and confirms the importance of green investments. While the EU Taxonomy mainly concerned companies in the real estate sector that wanted to place funds on the capital market, it is now affecting more and more market participants. Accordingly, sustainability regulations are becoming increasingly important for investors and buyers across the board, while at the same time occupiers (tenants and leaseholders) must now also take taxonomy criteria into account in their corporate governance. Against this backdrop, proactive management will remain the order of the day in 2024.
Logistics market key figures
Logistics market Q4 2023
As expected, the nationwide logistics market failed to keep pace with the two record results of previous years (-26% compared to 2022) with take-up totalling a good 6.3 million m². Although the demand situation is somewhat more subdued due to economic and geopolitical uncertainties, it can still be rated as positive overall (-9% compared to the ten-year average). The most important determinants that prevented a higher take-up of space primarily include the difficult conditions for project developments, the further shortage of available space in and outside the major logistics regions and the increased importance of contract extensions in existing properties. Meanwhile, the upward trend in rents has continued across all locations. On average, prime rents rose by 9% and average rents by 11% over the past 12 months.
Retail market key figures
Retail market Q4 2023
2023 was a very turbulent year not only for the commercial investment markets, which were largely characterised by the challenging financing conditions, but also for occupier markets such as the retail market. In the first nine months of the year, there were six times as many major fashion bankruptcies as in the same period of the previous year (including P&C Düsseldorf, Hallhuber, Gerry Weber and the fashion company Ahlers). In addition, the negative headlines in connection with Signa Holding and the currently very expansive fashion store Aachener (now also bankrupt) created further uncertainty for many landlords and city centre locations in the fourth quarter. On the other hand, however, there were also numerous signs that reflect the thoroughly positive market sentiment on the letting markets: These included, first and foremost, the very good result in terms of take-up, which was achieved, among other things, by the successive re-letting of numerous shops that had been vacant for some time as well as looming vacancies. Developments in the prime rents segment were also positive, with the stabilisation trends that began in the previous year continuing to strengthen.
Residential market key figures
Residential Dashboard 2023
The course of 2022 so far has been characterised by different, very dynamic developments. On the one hand, with the ongoing transition of the Corona pandemic into an endemic, the usual movement is slowly returning to society and the housing markets. On the other hand, the Russian war of aggression and the strong increase in inflation created a new challenging market environment. Rising SWAP rates and worsening financing conditions have caused an overall slowdown in market dynamics. Overall, the housing markets are thus in a phase of consolidation. On average, rents and prices are currently stabilising. However, there are clear local differences.
Residential rental & purchase price navigator
The residential markets of the most popular metropolises in Germany have been dominated by rising rental and purchase prices for years. But what is the situation in the rest of the country? BNPPRE investigated this question and analyzed all 108 independent cities in Germany. With the BNPPRE Residential Navigator, which is updated every six months, you can make further progress through the numerous residential markets and keep an eye on rental and purchase price developments (for condominiums) in the new builds and existing stock as well as other key figures.
Hotel Dashboard Q3 2023
The German hotel investment market once again failed to record any sustained revival in the third quarter. Accordingly, the total transaction volume recorded by the end of September amounted to just €573 million, the lowest result since 2010. While the previous year's result was undercut by slightly more than a half (-56%), the decline compared with the ten-year average was even more pronounced at -73%. Despite the very low transaction volume, a recent increase in buyer interest has nevertheless already been observed, which is attributable to the now again high hotel occupancy rates. However, the pricing phase remains dynamic, which is why transactions are currently being realized primarily in the small-scale segment. Consequently, as in the same period of the previous year, no major portfolio transactions were recorded in the first nine months of the year.
The Hotel Dashboard from BNP Paribas Real Estate provides an overview of the development of hotel investment and performance indicators in the various top markets in Germany.
Hotel market key figures
BNPPRE Tourism analyser
On the German hotel market, after the impactful Corona years of 2020 and 2021, all key performance indicators suggest that the recovery of tourism in Germany has gained significant momentum, especially since summer 2022. With a total of around 349 million overnight stays between January and the end of September, the figures for 2021 as a whole (around 310 million guests) had already been outperformed by almost 13% before the start of the fourth quarter. On a monthly basis, the number of overnight stays has been on a par with the level of 2019 since August due to the renewed demand impulses in city and business tourism as well as among guests from abroad. An analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate on the most important developments and trends in the German hotel market shows how the Corona crisis has affected the general conditions in the hospitality industry and influenced travel behaviour in Germany.
While some dashboards are no longer up to date, they still offer an exciting insight into the various markets. Scroll through our dashboard archive here:
KEY FIGURES AND ANALYSES
ON THE GERMAN REAL ESTATE MARKET
Find out more about the latest developments in the investment, office, logistics, retail, hotel, healthcare and residential real estate markets to base your property decisions on a strong foundation of solid market information. We are happy to provide you with an extensive overview of property-related developments throughout Germany and details of the real estate markets of the largest German cities.