BNPPRE Dashboards

Office market Q4 2022

The German office markets have held their course impressively in a difficult environment in 2022. Take-up in the eight locations Berlin, Düsseldorf, Essen, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Leipzig and Munich amounted to a good 3.4 million m² at the end of the year. This matched the previous year's result (also 3.4 million m²), and at the same time the result is on a par with the long-term average.

Outlook: The winter months ahead will not be easy for the German economy. A further weakening of momentum is very likely, at least for the first months of the year. The office markets will hardly be able to escape this development, so relatively moderate take-up is to be expected for the time being. However, as soon as the economic tailwind becomes stronger again, lettings activity in the major German locations will also pick up again on a sustained basis.

Commercial investment market Q4 2022

The German commercial investment volume totaled €54.1bn in 2022. This is almost 16% below the comparable figure for the previous year. However, the ten-year average was only missed by just under 2%. The record result of the first quarter is primarily responsible for this good performance in the longer term, whereas the fourth quarter in particular recorded a very low transaction volume in a historical comparison. As expected, the traditional year-end rally did not take place, what clearly shows how challenging the current macroeconomic and financial market environment is for the commercial investment markets. At € 9.9 billion, the transaction volume in the fourth quarter was half the average of the last five years. The significant rise in interest rates, a weakening economy and inflation at record levels not only create a certain degree of uncertainty about the further development of the real estate markets, but have also contributed to the fact that many large transactions that were already being placed on the market could no longer be realised - many of them postponed to 2023.

Logistics market Q4 2022

The German logistics market finished the year 2022 with a strong result overall. Although take-up of 8.5 million m² (incl. owner-occupiers) fell short of the record result from previous year by around 7 %, this was only the second time ever that the 8 million m² mark was exceeded. Accordingly, the long-term average was also surpassed by one quarter. The German logistics markets are thus once again proving their high resilience in times of increased geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

Footfall Dashboard 2021

The ups and downs since the beginning of the Corona pandemic are reflected in hardly any other indicator as visibly as in the footfall in German city centre locations, which at times resembled a rollercoaster ride. During the lockdowns, historically low figures were recorded in some cases, but in between they always recovered very quickly. The rapid recovery speed of the footfall in an improving environment clearly indicates that the high street retail sector continues to be strongly accepted and is a positive signal for future development.

An interactive tool that clearly displays and compares footfall figures in 2021 for almost 100 shopping streets in 27 cities.

Expansion analysis 2022

Whether it is expansion to extend their own chain store network, restructuring to improve and optimise locations and rental conditions in the wake of the Corona crisis or market entry in Germany - the possible motives for renting retail space are as varied as the brands behind them. Accordingly, on the basis of current lettings and openings, different motivations can be assumed behind the expansion plans of active retailers. The large pool of active retailers from different sectors with a wide range of location preferences suggests that there are definitely developments that represent countermovements to the much-cited thesis of the abandonment and standardisation of city centres.

The most active retailers in various sectors in German city centre locations (deals since 2020) can be found in the BNPPRE expansion analysis.

Retail Cockpit

Are you planning to open a store in a prime location of the A-locations, but are not sure which city and shopping street to choose? Then perhaps the BNPPRE Retail Cockpit will help you to underline your decision or even to rethink it. The cockpit enables a total of 35 A-locations in the 7 A-cities to be compared with each other across cities and locations on the basis of four retail indicators: prime rents, footfall and letting dynamics (according to the number of deals and take-up). This makes it clear that rent levels, high footfall and letting activity are often, but not always, closely linked.

Retail market Q4 2022

In 2022, many important learnings have emerged on the retail letting market that were triggered by the transformation processes in the wake of the Corona crisis: Retail take-up in city centre locations has now settled at a post-Covid level, prime rents are showing signs of stabilising again after two years in a downward spiral, and footfall has not only fully recovered since spring, but has even exceeded its previous year's levels, usually by a significant amount. BNP Paribas Real Estate has analysed the various developments behind these general retail trends with the help of market data for 2022.

The digital and interactive BNPPRE Retail Letting Dashboard 2022 shows how retail take-up, prime rents and footfall have performed over the long term in individual cities.

Residential Dashboard 2022

The course of 2022 so far has been characterised by different, very dynamic developments. On the one hand, with the ongoing transition of the Corona pandemic into an endemic, the usual movement is slowly returning to society and the housing markets. On the other hand, the Russian war of aggression and the strong increase in inflation created a new challenging market environment. Rising SWAP rates and worsening financing conditions have caused an overall slowdown in market dynamics. Overall, the housing markets are thus in a phase of consolidation. On average, rents and prices are currently stabilising. However, there are clear local differences.

BNPPRE Tourism analyser

On the German hotel market, after the impactful Corona years of 2020 and 2021, all key performance indicators suggest that the recovery of tourism in Germany has gained significant momentum, especially since summer 2022. With a total of around 349 million overnight stays between January and the end of September, the figures for 2021 as a whole (around 310 million guests) had already been outperformed by almost 13% before the start of the fourth quarter. On a monthly basis, the number of overnight stays has been on a par with the level of 2019 since August due to the renewed demand impulses in city and business tourism as well as among guests from abroad. An analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate on the most important developments and trends in the German hotel market shows how the Corona crisis has affected the general conditions in the hospitality industry and influenced travel behaviour in Germany.