BNPPRE Dashboards

Office market Q1 2025

The German office markets have started the new year with significantly more momentum than in the two previous years. In the first quarter of 2025, office take-up in Germany's office top marktes Berlin, Düsseldorf, Essen, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Leipzig and Munich totalled 704,000 m². This result is almost 16% higher than the previous year, but remains below the long-term average due to the continued lack of an economic tailwind. Although take-up did not turn positive in all locations in the first three months of the year, five of the eight large markets reported a noticeable improvement in market sentiment as well as large-scale rental agreements, some of which were of a signalling nature. The mixture of positive and negative factors influencing the German economy is complex and short-term, direction-changing decisions make it difficult to anticipate future developments. Nevertheless, an accelerated recovery of the German economy and the associated additional demand boost currently represent the most likely scenario.

Commercial investment market Q1 2025

The increase in investment turnover in Germany not only continued in the first quarter of 2025, but even accelerated slightly. The volume of commercial investment transactions totalled a good € 5.9 billion in the first quarter of 2025. The increase in turnover of around 7% basically confirms the upward trend that was already recognisable at the end of last year. An overall analysis of the influencing parameters shows that forecasts can only be made within the framework of scenarios, as the uncertainty regarding the further development of many important global and economic factors is too extreme for more quantitatively substantiated forecasts. From today's perspective, the most likely scenario is an accelerated recovery of the German economy, from which the occupier markets will benefit. As demand for office space picks up, investments will also become increasingly attractive.

The share of certified green buildings within the commercial investment volume (excluding portfolios) remains at a very high level, even in a challenging market environment. After the top figure of just under 31% in 2022, around 27% was achieved in 2023. This is the second-highest share in the last 10 years and confirms the importance of green investments. While the EU Taxonomy mainly concerned companies in the real estate sector that wanted to place funds on the capital market, it is now affecting more and more market participants. Accordingly, sustainability regulations are becoming increasingly important for investors and buyers across the board, while at the same time occupiers (tenants and leaseholders) must now also take taxonomy criteria into account in their corporate governance. Against this backdrop, proactive management will remain the order of the day in 2024.

Logistics market Q1 2025

The nationwide logistics market achieved take-up of around 1.2 million m² in the first quarter of 2025. This represents a noticeable increase in comparison to the previous year's weak result, with growth of around 16%. In a long-term analysis, this is a rather moderate start to the year, as in the two previous years, which remains just under 21% below the ten-year average. Against the backdrop of the continuing weak economic conditions and the very low GDP forecasts for the current year, the result can certainly be seen as positive. The first quarter was characterised by a similar number of contracts to the same period last year, a slight increase in large-scale contracts and somewhat greater confidence among companies. However, the further development of the warehouse and logistics market is currently being influenced by many different factors. The impact of US trade policy - and above all the unpredictable customs policy - on global trade and the export-orientated German economy in particular cannot yet be predicted. From today's perspective, we assume that overall take-up will increase over the course of the year, but will not reach the long-term average.

Retail market Q1 2025

Retail market activity in German city centre locations was lively in many respects in the first quarter of 2025: On the one hand, footfall in the 50 top locations regularly analysed by BNP Paribas Real Estate has picked up noticeably since the end of March thanks to the early summer weather. Around two thirds of the most frequented shopping streets achieved constant or slightly higher visitor numbers in the two weeks of the turn of the quarter compared to the already very good figures from the previous year. On the other hand, the high letting momentum with very pleasing take-up, particularly in the last two quarters, is having a positive effect on market sentiment in the retail segment. While in the first few years after the coronavirus crisis and the Signa bankruptcy, many of the larger reoccupations, particularly in former department stores, were more like interim lettings, the most recent new openings give the impression of being much more long-term in nature. If the vibrant market activity of the last six months continues, there is a good chance that positive news can be reported again in the middle of the year.

Residential Dashboard 2024

The German residential investment market continued to pick up over the course of the year 2024. In the year as a whole, €9.3 billion was invested in larger residential portfolios (30 residential units or more). This made residential the strongest asset class in 2024, ahead of logistics (€6.9 billion), retail (€6.3 billion) and office (€5.2 billion). Given the return of investor confidence, the further improvement in the financing environment and the further improvement in fundamental data, the positive trend on the German residential investment market is likely to continue in 2025. In view of the foreseeably weak level of new residential construction activity for years to come, rental prices are also likely to continue their dynamic growth trend. To summarise, the good prospects on the fundamental side and the stability of cash flows clearly speak in favour of investing in German residential properties.

Residential rental & purchase price navigator

The residential markets of the most popular metropolises in Germany have been dominated by rising rental and purchase prices for years. But what is the situation in the rest of the country? BNPPRE investigated this question and analyzed all 108 independent cities in Germany. With the BNPPRE Residential Navigator, which is updated every six months, you can make further progress through the numerous residential markets and keep an eye on rental and purchase price developments (for condominiums) in the new builds and existing stock as well as other key figures.

Hotel Dashboard 2024 / Q1 2025

Even though the upward trend has not yet been sustainably reflected in the investment data, the hotel sector has continued the recovery of its market environment unabated in the first quarter of 2025: For the first time in 2024 as a whole, guest overnight stays (a good 496.0 million) slightly exceeded the pre-Corona values from 2019 (around 495.6 million) again. And in January 2025, the Federal Statistical Office was also able to confirm this positive trend at the start of the year with an increase of 3.1% compared to the same month one year earlier. Provided a relatively stable development of the global trouble spots as a framework for investment activities, it should only be a matter of time before the noticeably increased investor confidence is measurably expressed in the registered transaction volume. Last but not least, the investment approaches that are emerging and in the preparatory phase give rise to this forecast. In total, around €238 million was invested in hotel assets in the past three months, which in the first result of 2025 confirms the previous year's result. Against the background that some larger deals were still brought over the finish line in the year-end business in 2024 and the number of deals included can be rated as good, the Q1 conclusion is positive overall.

The Hotel Dashboard from BNP Paribas Real Estate provides an overview of the development of hotel investment and performance indicators in the various top markets in Germany.

BNPPRE Tourism analyser

On the German hotel market, all key performance data indicates a sustainable recovery in tourism in Germany after the challenging COVID-19 years of 2020 and 2021. Significant increases in overnight stays by guests in accommodation establishments were already evident in 2022 (+49%) and 2023 (+61%). In 2024 around 496 million overnight stays were recorded, which not only exceeds the pre-COVID-19 figure from 2019, but also represents a new record in a long-term comparison. This reflects the resurgence in demand from city and business tourism as well as guests from abroad. Compared to the previous year, the number of overnight stays by foreign guests rose by a good 5% (85 million guests in 2024). Other key figures such as room occupancy and average prices also developed positively. By 2024, the occupancy rate had returned to a high level of just under 67% nationwide. The top 5 most popular travel destinations in 2024 are Berlin (31 million guests), Munich (20 million guests), the Baltic Sea (19 million guests), Hamburg (16 million guests) and the Main/Taunus region with 15 million guests. Furthermore, 52 million overnight stays were already registered between January and February 2025 - a strong signal for a continued positive trend in the current year.