LOGISTICS MARKET AT RECORD LEVEL
- The German logistics markets continue to perform at record level. With take-up of around 6.61 million m² (including owner-occupiers) by the end of September, the already outstanding result of the same period last year was exceeded by 10.5% and the long-term average by around a third setting a new record.
- Take-up is overall very dynamic in the running year, however, a number of major deals pushed the latest result to a new record. No less than three deals were concluded in the segment above 100,000 m². By far the largest deal of the year continues to be the new Tesla building in Grünheide near Berlin with 327,000 m², followed by the Amazon settlement in Erfurt (225,000 m²) and the Nokera plant in Möckern in Saxony-Anhalt (116,000 m²). All three contracts were signed in the first half of the year. In the third quarter the largest deal comprised 70,000 m² closed by AP Moeller Maersk in Bremerhaven.
MAJORITY OF TOP-REGIONS WITH STRONG RESULTS
- With 2.71 million m², the major logistics regions (Berlin, Cologne, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Leipzig, Munich, Stuttgart) achieved a new record in take-up. Although the Tesla deal in the Berlin market area played a significant role, the result still exceeds the long-term average by more than a fifth, even if the Giga Factory was excluded.
- Berlin leads the way with 847,000 m² (+136% vs. 10-year average; excluding Tesla: 520,000 m², +45%). However, Hamburg (388,00 m²; +8 %), Leipzig (308,000 m²; +57%), Cologne (230,000 m²; +39%), Düsseldorf (229,000 m²; +17%) and Stuttgart (223,000 m²; +71%) also achieve above-average results. Meanwhile, Munich (190,000 m²; -4%) and Frankfurt (292,000 m²; -30%) are recording lower take-up than usual.
- Also outside the major logistics hubs, market activity is very high. By a clear margin a new record of 3.9 million m² of take-up was recorded by the end of September.
- The German logistics market has been in excellent shape so far this year. Considering that a shortage of supply has been the main limiting factor in many markets to date, it is obvious that the letting markets are continuing to function and operate at a very high level despite all the geopolitical and economic uncertainties. However, the looming recession is likely to be felt in the logistics markets in the months to come. The extent to which this will happen remains to be seen for the time being.
- Although a year-end rally comparable to the one we observed last year (Q4 2021: 3.18 million m²) is rather unlikely, the 8 million m² mark is foreast to be exceeded by the end of the year for the second time ever. Against the backdrop of the sharp rise in construction costs, a further slight increase in rental prices is also to be expected.
LOGISTICS MARKET REGIONS IN GERMANY
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Publisher and Copyright: BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH | Prepared by: BNP Paribas Real Estate Consult GmbH | Status: 30.09.2022
Further Information: Christopher Raabe, Head of Logistics & Industrial | Phone +49 (0)40-348 48-0
Photo credits: Adobe Stock / Pawinee; alzay