At a Glance Q2 2023

Logistics market Cologne

Logistikmarkt Köln BNPPRE
55,000 m²
TAKE-UP
-65 %
H1 2023 vs. H1 2022
-48 %
IN COMPARISON TO 10-YEAR
AVERAGE

SUPPLY SHORTAGE AFFECTS TAKE-UP

  • The Cologne warehouse and logistics market achieved a take-up of 55,000 m² in the first half of 2023. This represents a decline of 65 % compared with the corresponding result for the previous year as well as -48 % compared with the ten-year average. In other years, there have also been half-year results of a similar magnitude, which were generally compensated over the year. Currently, in addition to the continuing economic uncertainties, the lack of available space throughout the market area is primarily responsible for the low take-up.
  • This applies in particular to the large-space segment of the market, where it is not possible to meet the corresponding demand. There are hardly any market-adequate properties available in the existing stock and new construction activity is currently too low to provide any short-term relief.
  • The development in rents is dynamic: both the prime and average rents have risen by around 10 % year-on-year to 7.50 €/m² and 5.50 €/m² respectively.

NO MAJOR CONTRACTS TO DATE

  • The distribution of take-up by size class reveals the main difference from the strong prior-year result. Whereas currently the largest registered contract comprises just 11,000 m² (retail company in Cologne), last year already more than 90,000 m² were recorded in the larger segments from 12,000 m².
  • Market activity was particularly lively in the category between 3,000 and 5,000 m², which also made an above-average contribution in absolute terms with 43 %.
  • In terms of take-up by sector, wholesale/retail companies are in first place with 41 % and increased their value in absolute terms compared with the previous year. Logistics firms follow with 36 %, while manufacturing companies are still underrepresented at around 15 %.
  • Due to the current economic environment and the lack of development land, owner-occupiers have been quite cautious to date and contribute only around 6 % to take-up. 

KEY FIGURES

OUTLOOK

  • Demand is expected to remain generally good for the rest of the year. Although some occupiers are acting more cautiously than in the previous year, the lack of available space remains the limiting factor in the Cologne market area.
  • As there are no signs of a significant relief in the supply situation any time soon, it will probably only be possible to realise large-scale requests in isolated cases in the second half of the year. In conjunction with the noticeable rise in rents, occupiers are also increasingly tending to extend existing rental agreements.
  • Against this background, take-up is unlikely to reach the long-term average (234,000 m²). As a result of the continuing discrepancy between supply and demand, rental price levels are likely to rise further, both at the peak and on average.

LOGISTICS MARKET REGION COLOGNE

MAJOR CONTRACTS

11.000 m²
Handelsunternehmen
Köln

8.800 m²
Arcese Deutschland
Köln

4.600 m²
Karadag
Köln

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Publisher and copyright: BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH | Prepared by: BNP Paribas Real Estate Consult GmbH | Status: 30.06.2023
Further Information: BNP Paribas Real Estate | Branch office Cologne | Phone +49 (0)211-93 46 33-0
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